IRSG publishes latest rubber statistics

According to the latest July-September editions, global rubber consumption was 20.8milliont in the year to June2009, its lowest level since May2005, while year-on-year consumption growth at the same point was -12.3%; this compares to a growth rate of -3.5% reached in March2002, at the height of the last global economic downturn.

Global SR production declined by 13.7% in year-on-year terms in June2009, while global NR production fell by 3.7%. The more pronounced decline in global consumption compared to global production has moved the NR market into modest surplus in the year to June2009.

Global NR consumption is projected to fall by 5.5% in the 2009 calendar year, while SR demand is forecast to decline by 7.3%; meanwhile, global NR production is projected to fall by 4.8% in 2009.

Using a more pessimistic global economic growth scenario, with 2009 and 2010 growth rates set at 0.4% below those forecast by the IMF, which form the base scenario, results in 0.9–1.9% lower rubber consumption over the period; under a more optimistic scenario, in which global growth in 2010 recovers to its 2008 level, rubber consumption would be 0.7–2.1% higher than the base scenario.

Both publications are available free of charge for IRSG member governments and members of the panel of associates at www.rubberstudy.com.