IRSG presents review of its activities in 2008

As is presented below, the relocation has led to a year with an extra-ordinary number of meetings and other activities including closing the office in Wembley, setting up the office in Singapore, saying goodbye to most of the old staff and recruiting and training new staff. Meanwhile the Headquarters Agreement has been ratified. The year saw the following meetings:

• A meeting of the Executive Committee was held in the Secretariat Office in February 2008

• The 105th Group Meeting was held in March 2008 in London, including meetings of the Industry Advisory Panel, the Economic Committee, the Statistical Committee and the Heads of Delegation

• A special meeting of the Heads of Delegation on the revision of the Constitution and Rules of Procedure was held on 28-30 July 2008 in Singapore

• A meeting of the Executive Committee was held on 1-2 December 2008

• After the 28-30 July 2008 session, the Heads of Delegation met again on 3-5 December 2008. This was another extra-ordinary meeting to prepare the new Constitution and Rules of Procedures.

The Industry Advisory Panel met in Brussels on 13 October 2008. The meeting was hosted by the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers’ Association (ETRMA). The Statistical Core Group also met on 13 October at the same venue. Plans were made for future work. Meanwhile the Secretariat is very actively involved in implementing plans already agreed to. The Q4 version of the Rubber Statistical Bulletin as published in November already has the proposed content and lay-out, except for the table on natural rubber area.

The Economics and Statistics Staff

The successor to Dr Prachaya Jumpasut, who was with the IRSG since 1982, is Mr Gerard Stapleton. He started working on 1 June in the Wembley office for a short period of hand-over. Gerard is Head of Economics and Statistics. The successor to Mr Darren Cooper, who left the IRSG in October 2006, could finally be selected: Dr Lekshmi Nair started work in January 2008. The only ‘old hand’ is Mr Dock No. All moved to Singapore at the end of June.

The Administrative Staff

At the end of March and the beginning of April, interviews were held in Singapore for the recruitment of administrative staff. The following were appointed

• Ms Christina Ho as Head of Management and Administration,

• Ms Adeline Koh as Administrator and Accounts Executive, and

• Ms Ashley Sam as IT and Statistics Officer.

All started work in Singapore, together with the Secretary-General on 1 June 2008.

Selection of new Secretary-General

The Executive Committee started the process for selecting a new Secretary-General, because the term of the current Secretary-General ends at the end of 2009. The advertisement was published in the Financial Times on 6/7 January and in the Economist on 8 January. The advertisement is also hosted on the IRSG website and has been sent to all members of the IRSG. Also on the website is the elaborate job description.

Statistics and forecasting

The joint workshop on rubber statistics and forecasting with the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries was held in January in Kuala Lumpur. This was considered a very good first step in improving the quality of statistics and the intensity of cooperation between the two organisations. A technical follow-up workshop will be held in Singapore in June 2009.

A meeting on rubber statistics was held with the EU and ETRMA on 23 April 2008. One of the main subjects was the definition of rubber for statistical purposes: how to deal with rubber consumed by non-rubber industries like paper, carpets and paint, and how to deal with thermoplastics included as rubber in statistics. Other items for discussion were suppression of data, handling of unexpected statistics, treatment of inconsistencies between consumption and production, the new design of the Rubber Statistical Bulletin (RSB) and the Rubber Industry Report (RIR), and the development and presentation of forecasts.

Both meetings provided good input for the preparation of documents for the Statistical Core Group (SCG). The documents include standard definition of rubber, improvements to the IRSG statistical output, changes to the RSB and the RIR, the IRSG short-term model and the IRSG long-term model.

Currently the short-run forecasting model is being developed, based on quarterly data. The long-term model is now further adapted especially focussing on a split of the commercial vehicle side into light commercial vehicles and medium/heavy commercial vehicles as well as the development of scenarios and transparent presentations.

The Industry Advisory Panel in its meeting of 13 October in Brussels, also reviewed the report The World Rubber Industry – Review and Prospects to 2020, as prepared by the Secretariat. This report was prepared in the midst of a rapidly developing financial crisis and economic downturn. Downward revised IMF forecasts were published just days before the IAP meeting. It was agreed that the report would be revised incorporating as much as possible recent and expected developments in the world economy. Using the agreed maximum forecasting period of 10 years, a new report The World Rubber Industry – Review and Prospects to 2018, has just been published, indeed depicting a gloomy outlook for the short term. This report was made available in late 2008.